The Reasons Saudi Investment Has Not Transformed The Magpies into Championship Challengers

The Newcastle manager is not prone to dramatics or sweeping media pronouncements. Based on his standards, his media briefing after the weekend's loss to West Ham counts as a furious tirade. Newcastle took an early lead but West Ham were ahead by half-time, while also hitting the post and seeing a spot-kick revoked by VAR, prompting Howe to make a triple change at the break.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe this indicated of where we were at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to have that impression. In fact, I cannot recall having done so during my tenure as head coach of the club, so I felt the squad required a significant change at the break. This explains why I made those decisions.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth all came off at the interval and the team managed to steady somewhat in the second half, but never really looking like they could fight back into the game against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their last nine fixtures. Given how packed the middle of the standings is, with just three points dividing third from 11th, and nine points between the upper and lower ranks, a run of twelve points from ten matches has not left Newcastle stranded but, equally, they must not end the campaign in thirteenth place.

The Issue of Perception

The challenge partially is one of public view. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, the club possess the richest backers in the globe. The expectation when the PIF bought a majority stake of the club in recent years was that it would have a transformative effect, as Roman Abramovich had at Chelsea or Sheikh Mansour did at the Etihad. The difference is that those two owners took over prior to the advent of FFP regulations (and the current charges against City concern if they breached those guidelines after they were implemented).

Profit and sustainability restrictions limit the ability of owners, no matter how wealthy, to invest funds on their squads and therefore likely might have slowed any Saudi attempt to elevate the team to the level of City. But there is no need for the club's spending to have been quite as cautious as it has; they might have spent more and stayed inside the limit – or just accepted a relatively meagre Uefa fine since their big problem is more with the European than the Premier League rules.

Infrastructure Spending and PSR Regulations

Additionally, infrastructure spending is exempted from PSR assessments; the simplest method to raise income to generate more PSR headroom would be to expand or redevelop the stadium. Given the site of the home ground, with protected structures on multiple sides, in reality that likely implies building an entirely new venue. Rumors circulated in spring of possibly making the nearby relocation to a local park – opposition from community organizations might have been surmounted with a promise to create a replacement green space on the current stadium site – but there has not been any progress on that proposal. There has been substantial retrenchment from the Saudi fund on a range of projects as it shifts focus on local investments; the approach to Newcastle seems completely in keeping with that change of approach.

The Alexander Isak Situation

The Alexander Isak saga was born of that conflict. A bolder leadership might have framed his transfer as essential to free up funds for additional spending; instead there was a vain effort to retain him. That meant the team began the season amid a sense of disappointment even with the signings of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was indifferent: a single victory in their first six fixtures.

Yet it seemed a turning point was reached. They secured five in six prior to Sunday, a run that included convincing wins of a Belgian side and Benfica in the European competition. This explains the display against West Ham was such a shock. The problem maybe is that Newcastle’s approach is extremely intense, high-energy; a minor decrease in energy can have profound effects. Maybe the pressure of domestic, European and cup competition, five fixtures in 15 days, had taken its toll. Woltemade started all five matches and appeared especially weary.

Reality of Contemporary Football

That’s the nature of modern the sport. Coaches must be ready to rotate. Howe has been unfortunate that Wissa’s injury has meant he is lacking forward choices but, no matter how valid the explanations, Sunday’s showing was unacceptable –particularly following taking the lead at a ground ready to criticize its home team.

The Newcastle boss will wish it was just a blip, an off-day when everybody is off-colour at once, but if the Magpies are to secure the European competition next season, not to mention one day launch an actual title challenge, they cannot be as inconsistent as they have been.

Darlene Golden
Darlene Golden

Seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in UK betting markets and responsible gaming advocacy.